📄 中文摘要
Nick Bostrom的新论文指出，开发超智能并非像玩俄罗斯轮盘赌，而更像是进行一场风险较高的手术，以治疗否则将致命的病症。该研究从个人影响的角度审视最佳时机，排除了模拟假说等复杂因素。模型中考虑了安全进展等因素，旨在为超智能的开发提供更为合理的时间框架，以确保在追求技术突破的同时，最大限度地降低潜在风险。
超智能的最佳时机
出处: Optimal timing for superintelligence
发布: 2026年2月13日
📄 English Summary
Optimal timing for superintelligence
A new paper by Nick Bostrom argues that developing superintelligence is not akin to playing Russian roulette; rather, it resembles undergoing risky surgery for a condition that would otherwise be fatal. The research examines optimal timing from a person-affecting perspective, setting aside simulation hypotheses and other complex considerations. Models incorporate factors such as safety progress, aiming to provide a more reasonable timeframe for the development of superintelligence, ensuring that the pursuit of technological breakthroughs minimizes potential risks.