📄 中文摘要
研究通过任务基础模型对美国经济关键部门进行增长核算，分析了过去经济增长中自动化的贡献及其对未来人工智能和自动化影响的启示。历史上，总要素生产率（TFP）增长主要源于技术改进和生产效率提升。研究表明，尽管自动化推动了经济增长，但其效果受到系统中弱环节的限制，这意味着在未来几十年，人工智能的影响可能会受到类似因素的制约。对这些弱环节的理解将有助于更好地预测和管理未来的经济增长。
过去的自动化与未来的人工智能：如何通过弱环节驯服增长爆炸
📄 English Summary
Past Automation and Future A.I.: How Weak Links Tame the Growth Explosion
The research conducts growth accounting using a task-based model for key sectors of the U.S. economy to analyze the contribution of past automation to economic growth and its implications for the effects of AI and automation in the future. Historically, total factor productivity (TFP) growth has largely stemmed from technological improvements and efficiency gains. The study indicates that while automation has driven economic growth, its effects are constrained by weak links within the system. This suggests that the impact of AI in the coming decades may also be limited by similar factors. Understanding these weak links will aid in better predicting and managing future economic growth.